1956 The first alert that america was running out of oil is given by Hubert (a geoligist) who predicted that america’s peak production would occur between 1965-1970. No one believed him.
1972 America’s oil production peaked.
1973 Oil shortages send the world in recession
1974 A professional body is set up and tasked to monitor global oil supply and report on global supply to all governments so that they can plan their economies. (IEA.org)
2004 Shell announce that they don’t have the oil they said they had. Share price drops £4billion.
2005 People begin to question the stated oil reserves of the largest producers (Matt Simmonds investment banker)
2006 Oil price volatility is expected. (Matt Simmonds) infact Between 2005 and 2008 conventional oil production ceased to grow, despite massive investment, increasing demand and prices. This failure to increase conventional oil production, despite all the right incentives, is unprecedented in the history of the oil industry.
2007 By 2007, out of the world’s 20 largest producing oil fields, 17 were over 40 years old. The volume of oil production from 16 of this group of 20 largest fields was below their historical maximum.(ref 1).
In June several MP’s and Lords formed the All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil to look into peak oil. http://appgopo.org.uk
By July the IEA world energy outlook that global governments rely on said..
“Despite four years of high oil prices, this report sees increasing market tightness beyond 2010, with OPEC spare capacity declining to minimal levels by 2012,”
2008 By Nov IEA release new energy findings after an audit on 800 global oil wells they conclude there will be an annual reduction of 6.7% or 67% over 10 years. Credit crisis errupts. Oil hits $147 a barrel.
2009 Oct. UK’s Energy Research Centre released a 300 page (plus seven detailed technical annexes) study entitled “Global Oil Depletion – An assessment of the evidence for near-term peak in global oil production.” (The report is available for downloading at the UKERC’s website.)
This is clearly the most sophisticated report of any that has been done so far, carefully weighing the evidence for and against an early peak of conventional oil production in 600 pages of detailed annexes.
2009
Now we here from the IEA that they are warning governments of an immenent supply shortage and a 50% drop in supply in only 11 years. Others including the US Military are quoting 2014 as a date of sever shortages.
http://www.globalwitness.org/media_library_detail.php/854/en/heads_in_the_sand_governments_ignore_the_oil_supply
Ref 1. – IBID. Taken from Page 6 of the global witness report above.